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THE INFLUENCE REAL EXCHANGE RATE ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE STRUCTURE OF ECONOMY.
Abstract
The undervaluation of the national currency may lead both to the acceleration of economic growth caused by the growth of the price competitive capability of export and the protection of the internal market, as well as to the emergence of losses in course of devaluation that cannot be compensated by the following economy growth. The Russian ruble demonstrates vulnerability to the shocks at the resource markets, and its deep devaluations are provoked by the drastic falls of oil prices. The analysis carried out in this paper with the purpose to evaluate the influence that the exchange rate fluctuation has on the volume and the commodity structure of import shows that in the short term the weakening of the national currency has little influence on the structure of the goods import. A deep devaluation results in the acceleration of the inflation rate, together with the growth of expenses measured in the internal prices. A subsequent recovery of the real exchange rate due to the outrunning growth of the internal prices eliminates the stimulating effect of the devaluation.
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