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MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF CULTURAL DYNAMICS IN EUROPE DURING XVI-XX CENTURIES
Abstract
The research focuses on the study and the identification of significant relationships between the observed peaks of the creative activity in such fields as art, music, literature, philosophy, science and technology. To establish the relationship between the development of cultural fields and development of society the structural-demographic theory was used, according to which a state goes through integration and disintegration phases during its existence. According to this, we propose the hypothesis that a phase of disintegration can be characterized by larger ratings of cultural figures. To test the hypothesis we used the empirical data processing thirteen secular cycles, which includes the described ones in the works by P.Turchin and S.A.Nefedov and by us. The research demonstrated, what phases of the selected secular cycles are accounted for the largest cultural achievements. The relationships between the research results and the specification of secular cycles and cultural fields were studied. The t-test for means for dependent samples showed that the supposed hypothesis got a confirmation at the significant statistical level in six cultural fields (literature, art, science, technology, music and philosophy). In frame of the study mathematical model of the dynamics of culture was also elaborated and tested. The model testing showed statistically reliable results. Historical interpretation of the results was also given.
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