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UNCERTAINTY IN THE INNOVATION BUSINESS IN TERMS OF FUZZY SETS
Abstract
The problem of managing the uncertainties when making business decisions is relatively new to science and practice. However, the question of the elaboration of the development strategy of innovation for companies in the context of non-obvious consequences of every decision is important. It is known that uncertainties arise in the external, internal and adjacent environment, moreover, installed and timing of their occurrence, and also defined the regional factor. There is open the question about the management of innovation processes in the company with regard to each specific type of uncertainty. To solve the above problems has been specially designed approach based on fuzzy set theory. Thus was created the data processing algorithm of the expert survey of entrepreneurs (more than 6,700 units) that are in its manufacturing portfolio of innovative projects. Within the individual uncertainties were determined the following parameters: at what time each uncertainty will manifest itself; what will be the condition of uncertainty (internal, external, or conjugated organizational environment); is it possible to predict the uncertainty or not; what will serve as a stimulus to the emergence of varying uncertainty (the origin). So, to predict the emergence of a situation of uncertainty can only generate their natures, market, and system of relationships, technological, regulatory, financial and temporal. In the case of organizational, informational, human nature to predict the uncertainty is impossible. The article also presents the ratios at the indicated behavior of the uncertainties in the implementation of the innovation by time, environment, the prognosis and the nature of the existence of uncertainties themselves. Research study financed from Russian Foundation for Basic Research in the year 2014-2015 as research project No. 14-06-00051/15 “The implementation of innovative projects and processes under conditions of uncertainty”.
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