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PREDICTING MUNICIPALITIES' FISCAL DISTRESS. THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF WEST POMERANIAN MUNICIPALITIES AFTER THE 2008 CRISIS
Abstract
The paper investigates the financial variables which make the municipalities more prone to fiscal distress. I argue that the diagnosis of municipalities in fiscal distress requires not only the analysis of revenues but the expenditures as well. I assume that usage of debt and the intergovernmental transfers increases the fiscal distress risk. I hypothesize that the fiscal autonomy (increasing level of local taxes as percent of the total amount of tax revenues, especially the property tax) allows to decrease the fiscal distress threat for municipal budgets. Finally, I assume that the increasing level of the fixed expenditures as percentage of total expenditures is positively correlated with fiscal distress phenomenon. I use correlation analysis and regression model to verify the thesis. I have investigated the sample of 114 self government entities at municipal tier in the period 2008-2012 and build a model which enables to predict municipal fiscal distress. I have found that and the cities are less impacted by fiscal distress than the rural municipalities because of the revenue and expenditures structure.
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